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On 21 May 2026 most provisions of Regulation (EU) 2024/1157 on shipments of waste started to apply, and DIWASS, the digital system for waste shipment procedures inside the Union, went live. That is the administrative half of the story. The commercial half arrives on 21 November 2026, when the EU bans exports of plastic waste to non-OECD countries. Roughly 500,000 to 800,000 tonnes a year will have to find an outlet inside Europe, in a market where recycling capacity has been shrinking rather than growing.
The three dates that matter
The regulation entered into force on 20 May 2024 but applies in stages, and the staging is what determines planning horizons.
- 21 May 2026 — new provisions other than those on exports start to apply; DIWASS replaces paper-based notification procedures for shipments within the EU.
- 21 November 2026 — ban on exports of plastic waste from the EU to non-OECD countries.
- 21 May 2027 — stricter rules for exports of non-hazardous waste to non-OECD countries.
Between May and November there is a six-month window in which exports still operate under the old rules while everyone knows they are about to close. Windows like that usually end the same way: a rush before the deadline, followed by an overhang of material afterwards.
How much material is involved
In April 2026 the EU shipped roughly 67 million kilogrammes of plastic waste to non-OECD destinations — in a single month. Industry estimates put the volume that will have to be handled domestically after the ban at 500,000 to 800,000 tonnes annually.
The capacity side is moving the other way. EU recycling capacity stood at approximately 13.2 million tonnes in 2023, and around one million tonnes were lost by the end of 2025 — the equivalent of France’s entire capacity, removed from the market in two years.
The reasons have little to do with regulation. Cheap virgin polymer, petrochemical overcapacity concentrated in China, and European operating costs that do not clear at current recyclate prices. The industry’s own summary is blunt: recyclers cannot sell their output at prices that cover the cost of collecting, sorting and processing plastic waste. That makes this an industrial-capacity problem, not a waste-management problem.
Why the ban will not automatically lower prices
The intuitive reading is that keeping waste inside Europe increases feedstock supply, so recyclate should get cheaper. Two things undercut that reading.
First, what was exported was mostly what European plants did not want. Clean, homogeneous fractions found buyers here without difficulty. What left were mixed, contaminated streams whose processing does not pay at current prices. Blocking the export route does not improve their quality — it increases the supply of waste, not necessarily the supply of usable recyclate.
Second, the ban reshapes the supplier landscape. A recycler who currently balances the books by selling off-spec fractions outside the OECD loses that channel in November. Whether your supplier belongs to that group is worth establishing before 2027 contracts are signed, not during them.
Three questions for your supply base
- What share of revenue comes from sales outside the OECD? “None” is a good answer. “We don’t track that” is a warning.
- What happens to reject fractions after November? Every recycling line produces a stream that cannot go into the target product. A supplier should have a plan for it, not an assumption.
- Are shipment notifications already running through DIWASS? Companies that made the transition without disruption usually have the rest of their documentation in order too.
The practical recommendation for the second half of 2026: negotiate 2027 contracts around feedstock origin, not only around product specification. Specifications can be met temporarily. Access to feedstock is structural.
Frequently asked questions
When does the EU ban on plastic waste exports to non-OECD countries take effect?
On 21 November 2026, under Regulation (EU) 2024/1157 on shipments of waste. Most other provisions of that regulation started to apply on 21 May 2026.
What is DIWASS?
DIWASS is the digital system for waste shipment procedures within the EU. It went live on 21 May 2026 and replaces paper-based notification procedures for intra-EU shipments.
Will the export ban reduce recyclate prices in Europe?
Not necessarily. Exported volumes consisted largely of mixed and contaminated fractions that European plants do not process because it does not pay at current prices. The ban increases the supply of waste rather than the supply of specification-grade recyclate.
Read next
- Post-consumer recyclate (PCR): what it is and how rPET, rHDPE and rPP are produced
- ISCC PLUS and mass balance: how the system actually works
- Food-grade rPET certification: EFSA, FDA, ASTM, ISO
Sources: European Commission, Regulation (EU) 2024/1157 on shipments of waste and its application timeline; export volume and capacity figures from market analysis published in July 2026, citing the European Commission and Basel Action Network.